In the months before the Iraq invasion
in 2003, we began writing that the proper term for the
so-called Bush Doctrine was not “preemptive” war but
“predictive” war. Our reasoning was that “preemptive” war
required clear evidence that Iraq was threatening or
preparing to attack the United States, but George W. Bush
was simply predicting that Iraq might someday pose a threat.
We compared the
Bush Doctrine with “predictive crime” featured in the
futuristic Tom Cruise movie, “Minority Report,” in which
police rely on oracles to arrest people who are judged to be
on the verge of committing murder.
During the second presidential debate
in St. Louis on Oct. 8, Bush effectively confirmed that he
is operating under a doctrine of "predictive" war.
The admission came when Bush was
discussing the findings of his own inspection team, which
had reported that Iraq had no stockpiles of weapons of mass
destruction and that Iraq didn't even have any active
programs to build them. So, Bush shifted his defense.
His new argument for the Iraq invasion
was twofold: Saddam Hussein held a grudge against the United
States and harbored hopes that he might eventually be able
to restart his weapons programs.
“What Saddam Hussein was doing was
trying to get rid of sanctions so he could reconstitute a
weapons program,” Bush said. “We knew he hated us.” In other
words, Hussein had a motive and a hypothetical,
maybe-sometime-in-the-future opportunity. Nothing in Bush's
position justified a claim of "preemptive" war, which is
defined as striking an enemy that is poised and prepared to
attack. (We also have resisted applying the term
"preventive" war because waging war to "prevent" war has an
Orwellian ring to it.)
Bush gave his answer in response to an
audience question about whether he could name three mistakes
that he had made as president. Bush refused to admit any
specific errors and declared that his invasion of Iraq was
“the right decision.”
To support his position, Bush cited the
new report by chief inspector Charles Duelfer, who had found
no WMD in Iraq and no WMD programs but did speculate that
Hussein might have harbored hopes that he might be able to
escape international sanctions at some point and then resume
his pursuit of WMD. As Duelfer's report pictured the reality
on the ground, however, Hussein's Iraq was neither an
imminent nor even a “gathering” threat, as Bush had claimed
before the war.
'Hypothetical' War
While it's true that Hussein was
lobbying against international sanctions and chafing under
the U.N. inspections regime, there was no real reason to
believe that he would have been freed of those constraints
in the foreseeable future. In any case, the world community
was sure to keep a close eye on Hussein's activities.
Plus, Duelfer's report represented
undeniable proof that the often-maligned U.N. inspections
regimen had worked, that Hussein's WMD ambitions had been
kept in check with the dictator having little hope of
threatening his neighbors in the region, let alone the
United States on the other side of the globe.
Based on Bush's latest statements, one
might even argue that the Bush Doctrine has moved beyond
“predictive” war to a kind of “hypothetical” rationale for
invading other countries – that is, if a future threat is
just conceivable, no matter how unlikely, then Bush has the
right to invade. By contrast, the safeguards envisioned in
the movie, “Minority Report,” look positively judicial and
rational.
The American people and the world also
can expect that Bush fully intends to apply his war doctrine
during a second term. "This is a long, long war," Bush
declared in one chilling comment during the second
presidential debate.
Indeed, on the campaign trail on Oct.
11, Bush recommitted himself to total victory over
terrorism, reminiscent of his earlier pledges to rid the
world of "evil." Reacting to Democrat John Kerry's statement
that a realistic goal would be to reduce the threat of
terrorism to a "nuisance" rather than an all-consuming
national concern, Bush chastised Kerry for the remark and
vowed "to defeat terror by staying on the offensive,
destroying terrorists, and spreading freedom and liberty
around the world." [NYT, Oct. 12, 2004]
Vice President Dick Cheney piled on,
denouncing Kerry's views as "naïve and dangerous."
Textbook Doctrine
Yet few counter-insurgency experts
believe that total victory over terrorism is realistic,
since terrorism is essentially a tactic rather than a
defined ideology or organization. While it might be
possible, for instance, to destroy a terrorist organization,
such as al-Qaeda, terrorism represents a tactic
traditionally defined as using violence against civilians
for a political effect.
If the elimination of the tactic of
terrorism is the ultimate goal, then Bush's war moves beyond
even the predictive and the hypothetical to the subjective
and the endless.
For instance, in line with the old
saying that "one man's terrorist is another man's freedom
fighter," there was strong evidence in the 1980s that the
Reagan-Bush administration supported the Nicaraguan contras
when they were involved in attacking civilian populations
for political reasons. The Reagan-Bush reaction was to
simply deny the evidence compiled by international human
rights groups. [For details, see Robert Parry's
Secrecy & Privilege, or his earlier book,
Lost History.]
Sometimes even U.S. officials were
implicated in acts of terror. CIA Director William J. Casey
helped finance a 1985 operation against Hizbollah leader
Sheikh Fadlallah that included hiring operatives who
detonated a car bomb outside the Beirut apartment building
where Fadlallah lived.
As described by Bob Woodward in Veil,
“the car exploded, killing 80 people and wounding 200,
leaving devastation, fires and collapsed buildings. Anyone
who had happened to be in the immediate neighborhood was
killed, hurt or terrorized, but Fadlallah escaped without
injury. His followers strung a huge ‘Made in the USA’ banner
in front of a building that had been blown out.”
More recently, there have been
questions about whether George W. Bush's indiscriminate
attacks on civilian targets in Iraq have crossed the line
into terrorism. For instance, during the early days of the
war, Bush ordered the bombing of a
Baghdad restaurant because he thought Hussein might have
been having dinner there. As it turned out, Hussein wasn’t
among the clientele, but the attack killed 14 civilians,
including seven children. One mother collapsed when rescue
workers pulled the severed head of her daughter out of the
rubble.
Beyond murky judgments about the
boundaries of terrorism, there is a more practical concern
raised by counter-insurgency experts who understand that the
textbook strategy for winning irregular wars is to apply a
combination of tactics to reduce levels of violence and turn
the conflicts into more manageable police actions.
While hardcore enemies may require
elimination through military attacks, the larger
pacification strategy must be to isolate the extremists from
the population by addressing root causes that have fed the
violence. The textbook goal is to win by gradually lowering
the conflict down the spectrum of violence until police and
judicial systems can do the job. However, the Bush
administration continues to mock this approach as one that
fails to embrace the need for an all-out war.
Bush also has operated under the
dubious assumption that "freedom and liberty" will somehow
eliminate the root causes of Middle East anti-Americanism,
when that sentiment is actually driven by a host of other
reasons. These include animosity over the U.S. role in the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the extraction of the region's
oil in ways that often enrich corrupt Arab elites far more
than average citizens, and the long history of the West
placing its hunger for oil above the cause of freedom in the
Middle East. For decades, Washington has operated under the
Realpolitik judgment of providing security for
regimes regardless of their repressive policies – the Saudi
royal family, for instance – in exchange for reliable
supplies of oil.
But the Bush Doctrine and its shifting
standards for waging war have unnerved people far beyond the
Middle East. Given the enormous destructive power of the
U.S. military, Bush’s elastic rationales for war represent
an unprecedented claim of nearly unlimited authority by one
man to inflict death and destruction on any country in the
world at his discretion.
It remains possible that Bush has
learned lessons from the Iraq War, which he just doesn't
want to admit during a political campaign. Conceivably, he
might exercise more restraint in a second term. But there is
no evidence that he would. The only meaningful opportunity
to put a check on his breathtaking assertion of authority
may be the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 2. |